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- May 12, 2008 |
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"How Prognostic are the UKPDS and DiaCard Diabetes-Specific Risk Engines for Predicting 5-year Risk of Events in Type 2 Diabetic Patients Without Prior Cardiovascular Disease? The Fremantle Diabetes Study"Dr. Wendy Davis (biography)
English - 2006-12-06 - 26 minutes
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Summary :
For patients with type 2 diabetes without a history of cardiovascular disease, the UKPDS provides risk engines for fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease and stroke (1,2), and for all patients with type 2 diabetes, DiaCard, developed by the Steno Diabetes Center presents equations for all-cause and cardiac mortality.
How well do these risk engines perform in predicting the 5-year risks of future CVD events and death in an Australian community-based cohort of type 2 diabetic patients? This question was explored in the Fremantle Diabetes Study, in which subjects who were initially CVD-free were followed from study entry till the first CVD event or death or 5 years, whichever came first.
In the present study the UKPDS and DiaCard equations were found to define relative risk well, whereas absolute risk was overestimated by all but one of the risk equations. Dr. Davis discusses the study findings, its limitations, and conclusions.
Copyright © 2007 E-MedHosting.com Inc.
Learning objectives :
After viewing this presentation the participant will be able to discuss:
- Risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD)
- The limitations of CVD risk equations in predicting future events
- Assessment of model performance
- The difference between absolute risk and relative risk
Bibliographic references :
1. Richard J. STEVENS, Viti KOTHARI, Amanda I. ADLER, Irene M. STRATTON and Rury R. HOLMAN on behalf of the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) GroupThe UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56) Clinical Science (2001) 101, (671–679).
2. Viti Kothari, MSc; Richard J. Stevens, PhD; Amanda I. Adler, MD; Irene M. Stratton, MSc; Susan E. Manley, PhD; H. Andrew Neil, FRCP Rudy R. Holman, FRCP for the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Group UKPDS 60: Risk of Stroke in Type 2 Diabetes Estimated by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine Stroke. 2002;33:1776.
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